Poverty on the rise: memo for Trudeau
Internal analysis recognizes some households struggle to buy groceries
An internal memo for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledges that poverty is on the rise for many Canadians after years of progress, leaving vulnerable families struggling to put food on the table.
“Poverty rates are increasing again, mostly among non-elderly single individuals,” says a June 3 memo and deck presentation entitled The Financial Situation of Households: An update on strengths and vulnerabilities.
“In line with increased poverty rates and rising food prices, a larger share of the population is experiencing food insecurity, moderate or severe. Non-elderly persons living alone and female lone-parent families are most at risk of experiencing food insecurity, particularly if also part of [a] visible minority.”
The memo warns that a “relatively small but growing number of households is struggling to fulfill debt obligations, and this now seems to be particularly the case for low-income renters …”
The 20-page assessment, from Mollie Johnson, deputy secretary to the federal cabinet, mirrors the findings of other non-government analyses of affordability. The memo suggests that the prime minister’s department, Privy Council Office, accepts some criticisms of its management of the economy as having a basis in fact.
The document was obtained under the Access to Information Act, with few redactions. The released version can be read in full here:
The memo notes that poverty rates have fallen since 2015, when the Liberals first came to power, and fell further after the 2020 pandemic triggered a series of government-support programs.
“Following notable improvements between 2015 and 2020, poverty rates are increasing again past the pandemic, reflecting the higher cost of living,” the presentation says.
The document points to a stark economic divide among Canadians, with home-owning families generally coping with inflation and rising interest rates, and renters facing an erosion of their ability to survive financially.
“Rent has increased by about 20 per cent from pre-pandemic levels,” says the analysis. “On average, renters are having to allocate a larger share of their disposable income to pay for housing-related expenditure …”
The presentation concludes that “higher interest rates and strong wage growth benefited higher income households, which contributed to inequality.”
The memo draws on financial data from the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada, but includes the Privy Council Office’s own calculations.
A previous memo for Trudeau on affordability, dated Nov. 24, 2023, said the typical working-class family of four had lost $114 a month in purchasing power compared with about two years earlier. The document, which was also obtained under access-to-information, did not highlight poverty levels.
Earlier this year, the prime minister testified at a public inquiry into security that he does not necessarily read all of his briefing materials.
"The only way to guarantee, to make sure, that I receive the necessary information is to give me an in-person briefing, or over a secure line if necessary, on any issue or priority issue," he said.